Evaluation of an investment project using the method of real options,


A real option is an economically valuable right to make or else abandon some choice that is available to the managers of a company, often concerning business projects or investment opportunities. Real options differ thus from financial options contracts since they involve real i.

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Key Takeaways A real option gives a firm's management the right, but not the obligation to undertake certain business opportunities or investments. Real option refer to projects involving tangible assets versus financial instruments.

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Real options can include the decision to expand, defer or wait, or abandon a project entirely. Real options have economic value, which financial analysts and corporate managers use to inform their decisions. Factoring in real options affects the valuation of potential investments, although commonly used valuations fail to account for potential benefits provided by real options.

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Using real options value analysis ROVmanagers can estimate the opportunity cost of continuing or abandoning a project and make better decisions accordingly.

It is important to note that real options do not refer to a derivative financial instrument, such as call and put options contracts, which give the holder the right to buy or sell an underlying asset, respectively.

Instead, real options are opportunities that a business may or may not take advantage of or realize.

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For example, investing in a new manufacturing facility may provide a company with real options for introducing new products, consolidating operations, or making other adjustments in response to changing market conditions.

When deciding whether to invest in the evaluation of an investment project using the method of real options facility, the company should consider the real option value the facility provides. Real Options Valuation The precise value of real options can be difficult to establish or estimate. For instance, real option value may be realized from a company undertaking socially responsible projects, such as building a community center.

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By doing so, the company may realize a benefit that makes it easier to obtain necessary permits or approval for other projects. Of course, the key difference between real options and derivatives contracts is that the latter often trades on an exchange and has a numerical value in terms of its price or premium. Real options, on the other hand, are far more subjective. But, by using a combination of experience, and financial valuations, management should get some sense of the value of the project being considered and whether it's worth the risk.

Adjusting for Cost

Still, valuation techniques for real options do often appear similar to the pricing of financial options contracts, where the spot price or the current market price refers to the current net present value NPV of a project. The net present value is the cash flow that's expected as a result of the new project, but those flows are discounted by a rate that could otherwise be earned for doing nothing. The alternative rate or discount rate might be the rate of a U.

Treasury bond, for example.

Making Real Options Really Work

Some valuation models use terminology from derivatives markets wherein the strike price corresponds to non-recoverable costs involved with the project. In the derivatives world, the strike would be the price at which the options contract converts into the underlying security that is based on.

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Similarly, the expiration date of an options contract could be substituted with the time-frame within which the business decision should be made. Options contracts also have a volatility component, which measures the level of risk in an investment.

This is the first of two articles which considers how real options can be incorporated into investment appraisal decisions. This article discusses real options and then considers the types of real options calculations which may be encountered in Advanced Financial Management, through three examples.

The higher the risk, the more expensive the option. Real options must also consider the risk involved, and it too could be assigned a value similar to volatility. Other methods of valuing real options include Monte Carlo simulationswhich use mathematical calculations to assign probabilities to various outcomes given certain variables and risks.

CFOs tell us that real options overestimate the value of uncertain projects, encouraging companies to overinvest in them. These concerns are legitimate, but we believe that abandoning real options as a valuation model is just as bad. How can managers escape this dilemma? In exploring their reservations about real-option analysis as a valuation methodology, we have come to the conclusion that much of the problem lies in the unspoken assumption that the real-option and DCF valuation methods are mutually exclusive.

Special Considerations Heuristic Reasoning Real options analysis is still often considered to be a heuristic —a rule of thumb, allowing for flexibility and quick decision-making in a complex, ever-changing environment—based on sound financial criteria. The real options heuristic is simply the recognition of the value embodied in the flexibility of choosing among alternatives despite the fact that their objective values cannot be mathematically determined with any degree of certainty.

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Even if a quantitative model is employed to value a real option, the choice of the model itself is based on judgement and often a trial-and-error approach since the choices available can vary across firms and project managers. Having options affords the freedom to make optimal choices in decisions, such as when and where to make a specific capital expenditure.

Real Options

Various management choices to make investments can give companies real options to take additional actions in the future, based on existing market conditions. In short, real options are about companies making decisions and choices that grant them the greatest amount of flexibility and potential benefit regarding possible future decisions or choices.

Types of real options[ edit ] Simple Examples Investment This simple example shows the relevance of the real option to delay investment and wait for further information, and is adapted from "Investment Example". Consider a firm that has the option to invest in a new factory. It can invest this year or next year.

Choices that Fall Under Real Options The choices that corporate managers face that typically fall under real options analysis are under three categories of project management.

The first group are options relating to the size of a project.

Depending on the ROV analysis, options may exist to expand, contract, or expand and contract the project over time, given various contingencies. Real options are most appropriate when the economic environment and market conditions relating to a particular project are both highly volatile yet flexible.

Stable or rigid environments will not benefit much from ROV and should use more traditional corporate finance techniques instead. Let's say the company's executives are mulling the decision to open additional restaurants in Russia. The expansion would fall under the category of a real option to expand.

Integrating Options and Discounted Cash Flow

The investment or capital outlay would need to be calculated, including the cost of the physical buildings, evaluation of an investment project using the method of real options, staff, and equipment. However, McDonald's executives would need to decide if the revenue earned from the new restaurants will be enough to counter any potential country and political risk, which is difficult to value. The same scenario could also produce a real option to wait or defer opening any restaurants until a particular political situation resolves itself.

Perhaps there's an upcoming election, and the result could impact the stability of the country or the regulatory environment.

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